{"id":9504,"date":"2021-10-19T09:30:38","date_gmt":"2021-10-19T09:30:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/assignmenttutors.net\/blog\/for-the-demand-data-in-problem-11-develop-a-seasonally-adjusted\/"},"modified":"2021-10-19T09:30:38","modified_gmt":"2021-10-19T09:30:38","slug":"for-the-demand-data-in-problem-11-develop-a-seasonally-adjusted","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/assignmenttutors.net\/blog\/for-the-demand-data-in-problem-11-develop-a-seasonally-adjusted\/","title":{"rendered":"For the demand data in problem 11, develop a seasonally adjusted"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

12. For the demand data in Problem 11, develop a seasonally adjusted forecast for year 4. (Use a linear
\ntrend line model to develop a forecast estimate for year 4.) Which forecast model do you perceive to
\nbe more accurate: the exponential smoothing model from Problem 11 or the seasonally adjusted
\nforecast?

\n13. Develop a seasonally adjusted forecast for the demand data for fertilizer found in Problem 3.
\nThen use a linear trend line model to compute a forecast estimate for demand in year 4.

\n14. Monaghan\u2019s Pizza delivery service has randomly selected 8 weekdays during the past month and
\nrecorded orders for pizza at four different time periods per day:
\nDay

\nTime Period 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
\n10:00 A . M .\u20133:00 P . M . 62 49 53 35 43 48 56 43
\n3:00 P . M .\u20137:00 P . M . 73 55 81 77 60 66 85 70
\n7:00 P . M .\u201311:00 P . M . 42 38 45 50 29 37 35 44
\n11:00 P . M .\u201312:00 A . M . 35 40 36 39 26 25 36 31
\nDevelop a seasonally adjusted forecasting model for daily pizza demand and forecast demand
\nfor each of the time periods for a single upcoming day.
\n15. The Cat Creek Mining Company mines and ships coal. It has experienced the following demand
\nfor coal during the past 8 years:
\nYear Coal Sales (tons)
\n1 4,260
\n2 4,510
\n3 4,050
\n4 3,720
\n5 3,900
\n6 3,470
\n7 2,890
\n8 3,100

\nDevelop an adjusted exponential smoothing model ( a = .30, b = .20) and a linear trend line
\nmodel and compare the forecast accuracy of the two by using MAD. Indicate which forecast
\nseems to be more accurate.

\n16. The River is a literary magazine published by the English Department at Tech. It has a 70-year
\nhistory and enjoys an excellent reputation for providing a literary outlet for aspiring Ap-
\npalachian writers in particular. However, its sales, mostly through independent bookstores and
\ncollege libraries, have never been very large. Several years ago, the magazine\u2019s advisory board
\ndecided to create a Web site and post the bi-monthly issues online for free access. Due to poor
\neconomic conditions and state budget cuts, Tech recently withdrew funding for the magazine,
\nand in order to make up for this financial loss, the magazine\u2019s staff has decided to try to sell ad-
\nvertising (especially to local and regional businesses) on the magazine\u2019s Web site. In order to
\n730 CHAPTER 15 FORECASTING
\nsell advertising, the magazine\u2019s staff would like to be able to provide potential advertisers with
\na forecast of the number of \u201cvisits\u201d the Web site might receive in future months. Following is
\nthe number of monthly visits the Web site has received for the 24 months that it has existed:

\nMonth Web Site Visits Month Web Site Visits
\n1 537 13 822
\n2 375 14 677
\n3 419 15 1,031
\n4 276 16 657
\n5 445 17 983
\n6 512 18 774
\n7 670 19 1,210
\n8 561 20 811
\n9 705 21 1,137
\n10 619 22 763
\n11 768 23 1,225
\n12 645 24 941

\nDevelop a linear trend line forecast, an exponential smoothing forecast ( a = 0.60), and a
\n3-month weighted moving average (with the most recent month weighted by 0.50, the next
\nclosest month by 0.30, and the final month by 0.20). Indicate which one you believe is the most
\naccurate forecast model and the forecast for month 25.

\n17. The Beaver Creek Pottery Company sells bowls and mugs, hand-made by Native American arti-
\nsans, at a craft store and through a Web site. Making these items requires a special type of clay
\nand a large amount of individual person-hours, so for planning purposes, the company would
\nlike to forecast future demand, specifically through its Web site, which has increasingly become
\nthe primary source of sales. Following is the company\u2019s Web site demand (in items sold) for the
\npast 36 months:

\nMonth Sales Month Sales Month Sales
\n1 345 13 415 25 344
\n2 411 14 395 26 286
\n3 266 15 298 27 455
\n4 347 16 377 28 634
\n5 506 17 418 29 502
\n6 278 18 522 30 388
\n7 411 19 421 31 427
\n8 510 20 384 32 561
\n9 198 21 455 33 447
\n10 387 22 506 34 395
\n11 344 23 478 35 414
\n12 412 24 613 36 522

\nDevelop a linear trend forecast model, an exponentially smoothed model ( a = 0.20), and a
\n5-month moving average forecast model and indicate which one you think should be used to
\nforecast Web site demand.
\nPROBLEMS 731 \n<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

12. For the demand data in Problem 11, develop a seasonally adjusted forecast for year 4. (Use a linear trend line model to develop a forecast estimate for year 4.) Which forecast model do you perceive to be more accurate: the exponential smoothing model from Problem 11 or the seasonally adjusted forecast? 13. Develop a […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9504","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-homework-help"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/assignmenttutors.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9504","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/assignmenttutors.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/assignmenttutors.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/assignmenttutors.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/assignmenttutors.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9504"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/assignmenttutors.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9504\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/assignmenttutors.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9504"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/assignmenttutors.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9504"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/assignmenttutors.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9504"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}