Question 1:
\na) Briefly explain how the following features might be represented in the
\nclassical 4-stage modelling process:
\ni. Decision making of travellers facing congestion
\nii. Improvements to public transport links
\n10 marks
\n10 marks
\nb) Expansion factors used in trip generation modelling are typically
\ndetermined by changes in the characteristics of a zone, such as
\npopulation growth. These expansion factors do not typically take into
\nconsideration policy changes and other causes of change; list and justify
\nFOUR such policies or other causes.
\n20 marks
\nc) A previous survey found the average number of trips per week made by
\nHouseholds (HH), disaggregated by car ownership and household size,
\nas shown in Table 1 below. Calculate the average number of trips per
\nhousehold.
\nTable 1. Household size vs car ownership survey results 2015
\nCars owned by
\nHH
\n0 0 0 1 1 1 2+ 2+ 2+
\nHH Size 1 2 3+ 1 2 3+ 1 2 3+
\n% of HH 25% 12% 4% 25% 12% 8% 6% 4% 4%
\nTrips made by
\nHH
\n18 48 96 24 72 120 24 28 144
\n30 marks
\nd) However, a survey in 2020 showed the following changes compared to
\nthose results registered in the 2015 survey:
\n\u2013 50% of households with 1 car and with a HH size of 3 or more
\nacquired an additional car in the 2020 survey.
\n\u2013 35% of households without a car and with a HH size of 2 or more
\nhad acquired 1 car in the 2020 survey.
\n20 marks
\nTaking this new data into consideration, calculate the new average
\nnumber of trips per household.
\ne) Briefly discuss reasons for the differences between the results given in
\nanswer to parts c) and d).
\n10 marks
\nPage 3 of 6 Turn the page over
\nQuestion 2:
\na) The gravity model is a well-known method used for trip distribution
\nwhen no reliable previous matrix exists but there are reliable \ud835\udc42\ud835\udc56 and
\n\ud835\udc37\ud835\udc57
\n. The general form of the gravity model is given below:
\n\ud835\udc47\ud835\udc56\ud835\udc57 = \ud835\udc58\ud835\udc42\ud835\udc56\ud835\udc37\ud835\udc57 \ud835\udc53(\ud835\udc50\ud835\udc56\ud835\udc57 )
\ni. Briefly describe in your own words what is the meaning and
\npurpose of the \ud835\udc58 factor in the equation above.
\n15 marks
\nii. Give an example of an equation of the \ud835\udc53(\ud835\udc50\ud835\udc56\ud835\udc57) and explain
\nhow its curve may affect the value of \ud835\udc47\ud835\udc56\ud835\udc57
\n.
\n15 marks
\nb) A study area contains three zones X, Y and Z, and a trip matrix for
\n2015 as follows:
\nTable 2. Trip matrix 2015
\nO\/D X Y Z
\nX 10 8 13
\nY 5 14 7
\nZ 12 15 9
\nThe forecast for 2035 yielded the following trip ends:
\nForecast origin totals: Ox = 47, Oy = 35, Oz = 43
\nForecast destination totals: Dx = 40, Dy = 49, Dz = 36
\nUsing the Furness method, produce an estimate of the trip matrix
\nfor 2035. Stop when row and column totals agree to \u00b15%.
\n30 marks
\nc) Given the cost matrix as shown in Table 3. below, produce a trip
\nmatrix using a gravity model with
\na single K \ud835\udc56\ud835\udc57
\nfactor and the deterrence function\ud835\udc53(\ud835\udc50\ud835\udc56\ud835\udc57) = \ud835\udc50
\n\u22121
\n, and the
\nforecast origin and destination totals given in 2(c), above.
\nTable 3. Cost matrix
\nO\/D X Y Z
\nX 3 5 3
\nY 4 2 7
\nZ 3 6 5
\n30 marks
\nd) Briefly discuss reasons for the differences between the results given
\nin answer to parts b) and c).
\n10 marks
\nQuestion 3:
\nConsider the simple one-way network in Figure 1 where there are 1800 trips travelling
\nfrom O1 to D and 1200 from O2 to D. The link travel cost versus link flow relationships
\nare given in Table 4.
\nFigure 1: Network
\nTable 4: Link cost functions
\nLink Cost function
\nA 2.0 + 0.001 * flow
\nB 6.0 + 0.001 * flow
\nC 1.1 + 0.001 * flow
\nD 3.5 + 0.001 * flow
\nE 6.0 + 0.001 * flow
\na) Carry out a Dial type assignment with \u03b2 \uf03d \uf02d\uf030\uf02e\uf035, using empty link costs
\nand calculate the value of the disequilibrium indicator, calculate the
\nvalue of the disequilibrium indicator (\uf064).
\n\uf0e5T (C \uf02dC
\nmin
\n)
\nijr ijr ij
\n\uf064 \uf03d
\nijr
\n\uf0e5T C
\nmin
\nij ij
\nij
\n30 marks
\nb) Use an incremental assignment technique with fractions 40%, 30%,
\n20% and 10% of the total demand to obtain an approximation to
\nequilibrium assignment. Use the empty link costs in the first increment,
\nand calculate the value of the disequilibrium indicator.
\n30 marks
\nc) Critically comment on:
\ni. The results from parts a) and b), including which specific
\nfeatures of the problem favours one method over the other.
\n15 marks
\nii. The suitability of alternative assignment methods for this
\nproblem, and which one(s) you think would have performed
\nbetter than those in parts a) and b), and why.
\n25 marks
\nPage 4 of 6 Turn the page over
\nPage 5 of 6 Turn the page over
\nSECTION B
\nThis section of the exam contains two questions. Please check rubric to see how
\nmany questions you need to answer.
\nQuestion 4:
\na) There is a plan to introduce a fleet of automated vehicles to Leeds, which
\ncan be reserved for individual trips in a similar way to a taxi service. An
\naggregate four-stage modelling approach is considered for forecasting
\nthe impacts of this new service. Identify THREE aspects of the impacts of
\nsuch a service that this approach would be able to model, and THREE
\naspects that it would not. Briefly give reasons for your answers.
\n50 marks
\nb) A freight delivery service receives a request to deliver a product by 12.00.
\nThe delivery service has the choice to reorganise other shipments so as
\nto leave the depot at either 08:00 (arriving at 11.20), or to leave later at
\n10:00 (arriving at 12:20). Taking into account the inconvenience of leaving
\nearly (to the delivery company) or arriving late (to the customer), a
\ndeparture time choice model is estimated with utility function:
\nUt = \u22120.14Tt \u2212 3.9Pt\u2212 0.13Et \u2212 0.51Lt
\nwhere
\nUt = utility associated with departure time t
\nTt = travel time (minutes) at departure time t
\nPt= late penalty indicator, = 1 for late arrival, = 0 otherwise
\nEt = amount of early arrival time (minutes) if departing at time t
\nLt = amount of late arrival time (minutes) if departing at time t.
\nAssuming a binary logit choice model with scale parameter equal to 1,
\ncalculate the choice probabilities of the two alternative departure times,
\nshowing the key steps in your calculation.
\n50 marks
\nPage 6 of 6 End
\nQuestion 5:
\nA disaggregate binary logit model is estimated, in order to explain the choice between bus
\nand car for commuting trips to the centre of Leeds. In order to estimate the model, a stated
\npreference survey was conducted, with 659 responses used for calibration. The utility
\nfunctions assumed were of the following form:
\n\ud835\udc48\ud835\udc36\ud835\udc34\ud835\udc45 = \ud835\udf030 + \ud835\udf0311\ud835\udc47\ud835\udc36\ud835\udc34\ud835\udc45 + \ud835\udf033\ud835\udc36\ud835\udc36\ud835\udc34\ud835\udc45
\n\ud835\udc48\ud835\udc35\ud835\udc48\ud835\udc46 = \ud835\udf0312\ud835\udc47\ud835\udc35\ud835\udc48\ud835\udc46 + \ud835\udf032\ud835\udc4a\ud835\udc35\ud835\udc48\ud835\udc46 + \ud835\udf033\ud835\udc36\ud835\udc35\ud835\udc48\ud835\udc46
\nwhere \ud835\udc48\ud835\udc36\ud835\udc34\ud835\udc45 and \ud835\udc48\ud835\udc35\ud835\udc48\ud835\udc46 are the utilities of the car and bus modes respectively, \ud835\udc47\ud835\udc36\ud835\udc34\ud835\udc45 and \ud835\udc47\ud835\udc35\ud835\udc48\ud835\udc46
\nare the in-vehicle travel times (minutes) by car and bus respectively; \ud835\udc4a\ud835\udc35\ud835\udc48\ud835\udc46 is the waiting
\ntime (minutes) by bus; \ud835\udc36\ud835\udc36\ud835\udc34\ud835\udc45 and \ud835\udc36\ud835\udc35\ud835\udc48\ud835\udc46 are respectively the car parking charge and bus fare
\n(pence); and \ud835\udf030, \ud835\udf0311, \ud835\udf0312, \ud835\udf032 and \ud835\udf033 are coefficients of the model.
\nThe results of the model estimation are given in Fout! Verwijzingsbron niet gevonden..
\nTable 5: Logit model estimation results for mode choice in Leeds
\nCoefficient Estimate t-statistic
\n\ud835\udf030 0.82 6.81
\n\ud835\udf0311 \u20130.043 \u20138.24
\n\ud835\udf0312 \u20130.065 \u20134.93
\n\ud835\udf032 \u20130.072 \u20133.24
\n\ud835\udf033 \u20130.005 \u201312.42
\n\ud835\udf0c
\n2 0.31
\na) Comment on the results in Table 5, justifying any conclusions made. 40 marks
\nb) Estimate the value of time for in-vehicle time, for the car and bus modes. 20 marks
\nc) Estimate the mode share that would arise if all coefficients except \ud835\udf030 were
\nzero.
\n15 marks
\nd) Use your answer to c) to help explain the role of \ud835\udf030 and the real-life features
\nit could be capturing in this context<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Question 1: a) Briefly explain how the following features might be represented in the classical 4-stage modelling process: i. Decision making of travellers facing congestion ii. Improvements to public transport links 10 marks 10 marks b) Expansion factors used in trip generation modelling are typically determined by changes in the characteristics of a zone, such […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[25],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-24006","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-statistics"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/assignmenttutors.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24006","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/assignmenttutors.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/assignmenttutors.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/assignmenttutors.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/assignmenttutors.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=24006"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/assignmenttutors.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24006\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":24010,"href":"https:\/\/assignmenttutors.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24006\/revisions\/24010"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/assignmenttutors.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=24006"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/assignmenttutors.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=24006"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/assignmenttutors.net\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=24006"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}